Every time hostilities between Pakistan and India intensify, it usually reflects not only on military and diplomatic fronts but also on problems of water sharing. Following the recent militant attack in Pahalgam, a similar scenario has developed and India has announced suspending the Indus Waters Treaty.
Many would not know the background of the Indus Waters Treaty. The river and canal systems that had once run effortlessly had to be split between two sovereign countries following the split of British India in 1947. Since most rivers entering Pakistan started in India, the situation grew unstable when India blocked the Beas, Sutlej, and Ravi rivers in 1948. With Pakistan’s agriculture mostly dependent on these water sources, this blockade threatened that country’s output.
Signed on September 19, 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan was in response to rising worries. Its terms said that India received the three eastern rivers Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej; Pakistan received the three western rivers Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. While India was allowed to build limited projects for power generation and irrigation without greatly changing the water flow, the agreement gave Pakistan sole rights over her portion of the rivers.
Experts characterize the Indus Waters Treaty as Pakistan’s “lifeline” rather than only a legal instrument. Through a large canal network, the treaty helped to integrate the nation’s agriculture and allowed the building of significant infrastructure projects including the Tarbela and Mangla dams.
Acting as a mediator and offering technical, financial, and political support, the World Bank was crucial in the development of the treaty. The World Bank stepped in and assigned a team of hydrology, engineering, and international law experts when bilateral negotiations fell short in 1951. Through the development of a water-sharing framework, this team produced the treaty signed result. Should conflicts develop between the two countries, the World Bank, acting as a guarantor, has obligations to step in.
Notwithstanding two major wars and a minor conflict between Pakistan and India, the Indus Waters Treaty has mostly withstood geopolitical concerns. Still, it has been threatened multiple times historically. “Blood and water cannot flow together,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said following the Uri attack in 2016, and India started working on the controversial Tulbul Navigation Project on the Jhelum River, to which Pakistan objected. India also declared its intention to maximize the use of the Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej waters following the Pulwama attack, so lowering water flow to Pakistan.
India formally addressed the World Bank in January 2023 asking for a review of the terms of the treaty. Pakistan answered angrily, saying India has no power to unilaterally violate the internationally acknowledged agreement known as the Indus Waters Treaty.
For Pakistan, India’s recent declaration to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty in response to the Pahalgam incident begs serious questions. Experts say that such a suspension could be compared to strangling Pakistan’s water supply. The lifeline of Pakistan is the Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum rivers, which are vital for both drinking water and agriculture. About 85% of Punjab, Pakistan’s agricultural heartland’s food output comes from these rivers; agriculture employs 70% of the rural population and makes 25% of the national GDP.
Though India’s declaration is concerning, experts point out that its immediate effect could be small. India does not now have the required infrastructure to retain or reroute vast amounts of the waters from the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. India can only carry “run-of- the- river” projects devoid of major dams, which the treaty forbids that do not greatly impede water flow. Large storage facilities would call for years of research, building, and environmental permits.
Therefore, even if Pakistan’s long-term consequences could be severe, quick disruptions are expected to be negligible. Still, the circumstances have put a lot of pressure on Pakistan to create a strong diplomatic and strategic reaction to protect its essential water rights.