The Middle East is once again approaching a dangerous turning point—one where a single strategic miscalculation could plunge the region into prolonged instability, conflict, and fragmentation. Global power centers are visibly active, not merely through diplomatic statements but through concrete efforts to reshape political realities on the ground. If, after Venezuela, Iran becomes the next target of externally driven regime change, the consequences will extend far beyond Tehran and engulf the entire Middle East.
The notion of regime change has long been presented under the banners of democracy and reform, yet historical experience tells a different story. Iraq, Libya, and Syria stand as stark reminders that foreign-imposed political transformations rarely bring stability or prosperity. Instead, they weaken state institutions, fracture societies, and open the door to extremism. Applying this model to Iran—a far larger and more influential state—would carry exponentially greater risks.
Iran is not merely another Middle Eastern country; it is a central regional power with significant geopolitical weight. Its geographic location, military capabilities, and ideological influence make it a key pillar in the region’s balance of power. Any attempt to destabilize Iran would inevitably shift this balance, primarily to the advantage of Israel. Such a shift could allow Israel to consolidate its strategic dominance and advance long-term ambitions that many in the region view with deep concern.
Arab states must recognize a critical reality: the weakening of Iran does not enhance their security—it undermines it. History has repeatedly shown that when a major regional state collapses or is destabilized, the resulting chaos does not respect borders. The ripple effects of instability in Iran would reach the Gulf states, Iraq, Syria, and even South Asia, dragging the entire region into uncertainty.
The recent visit of Oman’s Foreign Minister to Tehran offered a rare but important diplomatic signal. It demonstrated that some regional actors still believe in dialogue over confrontation. This approach stands in sharp contrast to the prevailing narrative in segments of Western media, which often portray Iran as being on the brink of total collapse. Such portrayals frequently serve political objectives rather than reflecting the complex realities on the ground.
Another critical dimension of the current crisis is the extensive network of U.S. military bases across the Middle East. Facilities such as Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, and bases in Iraq place host countries in an extremely vulnerable position. In the event of a major confrontation, these states—despite having little influence over strategic decisions—would suffer immense security and economic consequences.
Any large-scale conflict would not remain confined to military engagements. It would disrupt global energy supplies, destabilize international markets, and deepen political and sectarian divisions within the Muslim world. Such divisions have historically benefited external powers while leaving the region’s populations to bear the costs of destruction and displacement.
This is why Arab and Islamic countries must move beyond short-term alignments and consider their long-term collective security. Disagreements with Iran exist and cannot be denied, but turning Iran into another battlefield would only accelerate regional decline. Diplomacy, engagement, and regional cooperation remain the only viable alternatives to chaos.
Major global actors such as China and Russia also have a responsibility in this moment. If they genuinely seek a multipolar and stable international order, they must oppose any unilateral attempt to impose regime change through coercion. Silence or neutrality in the face of destabilization would amount to complicity.
Ultimately, the Muslim world faces a defining choice. It can either learn from the painful lessons of the past or repeat them at an even greater cost. If Iran is destabilized today, another country may be targeted tomorrow. The politics of power can only be countered through unity, strategic foresight, and a firm commitment to diplomacy. Wars may be launched quickly, but their consequences endure for generations