ISLAMABAD – Northern Pakistan is facing another wave of climate-driven flash floods, killing hundreds and leaving thousands homeless in what experts warn is no longer a “rare disaster” but a new normal.
Since mid-August, torrential rains, mudslides, and glacial lake outbursts have claimed over 460 lives, including in Gilgit-Baltistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir. Nationwide, almost 800 people have died since late June due to monsoon-triggered floods and landslides.
Experts say Pakistan, which contributes less than 1% of global emissions, is still ranked among the top 10 most climate-vulnerable countries. The country is paying a heavy price for global warming while also suffering from weak domestic governance, unplanned urbanization, and unchecked deforestation.
“Floods are no longer rare disasters in Pakistan. They are becoming routine shocks that people brace for every monsoon,” said Karachi-based ecologist Rafi-ul-Haq, warning that the 2022 floods were not an exception but a glimpse of the future.
Climate impacts are worsening in the north, where glaciers are melting at alarming rates. In May, Chilas recorded 49°C (120°F) – the hottest temperature in its history. According to flood management expert Ahmed Kamal, shrinking winters and below-average snowfall have made the region even more vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods.
At the same time, the Arabian Sea’s rising surface temperatures are pushing cyclones westward, putting Pakistan’s coastline at greater risk since 2007.
Beyond climate change, human negligence has multiplied the destruction. Haq estimated that up to 60% of losses are caused by manmade vulnerabilities, such as illegal construction on waterways, clogged drains, and deforestation.
“Pakistan cannot stop the rain, but it can prevent much of the suffering by fixing manmade vulnerabilities,” Haq said.
Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently admitted that “criminal negligence” by successive governments allowed encroachments on riverbeds and watersheds. He vowed to clear illegal constructions and improve flood defenses.
Experts stress that Pakistan must focus on adaptation and resilience rather than emissions cuts. Proposals include restoring wetlands and mangroves, upgrading drainage systems, introducing flood-resilient farming, and providing insurance and safety nets for farmers.
Climate governance expert Imran Saqib Khalid warned that without urgent action, Pakistan could face food insecurity, water shortages, and mass migration. “If we continue on this trajectory, by the end of the century warming could reach 2.5°C, which will cause havoc,” he said.
Still, Kamal struck a hopeful tone: “The challenge is enormous, but the window of opportunity is still there. With smart adaptation strategies, we could at least mitigate much of the devastation.”