Turkey’s strategic reawakening in the Balkans: Diplomacy, balance, and leverage

For decades, Turkey’s foreign policy has been dominated by its relationships with the Middle East, the European Union, and the United States. Yet, a quiet but determined re-engagement with the Balkans is now revealing a different dimension of Ankara’s geopolitical vision. While not often central in Turkish political discourse or public consciousness, the Balkans has historically held strategic importance for Turkey. Anchored by geography, shared history, and cultural proximity, the region remains a critical pivot point for Turkey’s expanding influence, particularly in the realms of diplomacy, security, and regional stability.

In a clear signal of renewed commitment, Turkey recently launched a bold new initiative: the Balkan Peace Platform. Chaired by Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, the inaugural meeting was held in Istanbul last week, bringing together senior officials from six Balkan states-Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Albania. The platform is designed to promote dialogue and cooperation among regional actors, with informal meetings scheduled every six months and Istanbul serving as the ongoing host.

This initiative is not a spontaneous diplomatic gesture but rather a calculated step in Turkey’s broader Balkans strategy. Fidan’s remarks during the meeting underscored a central theme: “missed opportunities” in the region’s history have often led to grave economic and security consequences. The solution, he argued, lies in “regional solutions to regional problems”-a doctrine that positions Turkey as a natural facilitator in a region that has long suffered from external impositions and internal divisions.

The Balkans’ importance cannot be overstated.

Geographically, the region serves as a critical corridor linking Europe, the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and the Black Sea. Politically and historically, it has been the arena of intense rivalry among great powers-a legacy that birthed the term “Balkanization,” referring to fragmentation and chronic instability.

Russia, the EU, and the United States all have entrenched interests in the Western Balkans. Amid this competition, Turkey has chosen a unique path-not as a counterbalance to Russia, nor as a replacement for the West, but as a stabilizing actor whose inclusive diplomacy and multifaceted engagements offer an alternative approach.

At the core of the region’s instability lies the unresolved dispute between Serbia and Kosovo. Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence remains unrecognized by Serbia, although it has been accepted by over 100 countries, including Turkey. Notably, Turkey maintains strong diplomatic ties with both Belgrade and Pristina, reinforcing its credibility as a neutral mediator.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s 2017 visit to Serbia was a turning point. Marked by extraordinary warmth, it was widely viewed as Turkey’s final piece in the puzzle of its comprehensive Balkans policy. Ankara has since maintained a fine balance-supporting Kosovo’s independence and integration into Western institutions, while deepening economic and political ties with Serbia.

This equilibrium is further reinforced through trilateral dialogue formats such as Turkey-Bosnia-Serbia and Turkey-Bosnia-Croatia, platforms that foster multilateral engagement and prevent exclusive alignments.

Turkey’s Balkans policy aligns, in many respects, with broader Western objectives. The region’s aspirations to join the EU and NATO are well known, and Ankara has played a supportive role in facilitating this trajectory. Turkey backed the NATO accession of Albania, Croatia, Montenegro, and North Macedonia, and supports the EU membership bids of all Western Balkan states.

This alignment serves a dual purpose: it fosters regional stability and ensures that Turkey remains a key stakeholder in shaping the political architecture of post-accession Balkan states. In effect, Turkey is pre-positioning itself as a relevant actor even after these countries become more tightly integrated into Euro-Atlantic structures.

Turkey’s involvement in the Balkans goes far beyond diplomacy. It has signed free trade agreements with all the Western Balkan countries, laying the foundation for deeper economic integration. One of the flagship projects is the Belgrade-Sarajevo motorway-a landmark infrastructure investment that symbolizes Turkey’s commitment to regional connectivity.

Such projects serve both practical and symbolic purposes. Practically, they improve regional trade and mobility, accelerating the EU integration process. Symbolically, they demonstrate Turkey’s capacity to contribute to the region’s modernization and development, positioning Ankara not merely as a historic partner but as a forward-looking investor.

Turkey has also identified energy cooperation as a key vector of influence. Recent memorandums of understanding with Bulgaria and Romania illustrate Ankara’s intent to become an energy bridge in Southeast Europe. These deals are part of a broader energy strategy that enhances Turkey’s role as a regional hub and reduces the Balkans’ dependence on Russian energy.

In parallel, Ankara is ramping up its security footprint. Turkey holds the second-largest military contingent in NATO’s Kosovo Force (KFOR) and assumed command of the mission in 2023. It has also initiated broad military framework agreements with Albania, Kosovo, and North Macedonia, paving the way for deeper defense cooperation.

In May, Istanbul hosted a rare regional military gathering that included senior leaders from nearly every Balkan state, along with NATO allies. This show of unity came at a time of heightened anxiety due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and its ripple effects across Europe.

The Balkans remains a divided region in terms of global allegiances. While Albanians and Bosnians often look to the US and Turkey as key allies, Serbs maintain a strategic orientation toward Russia. These divisions complicate regional cooperation but also highlight Turkey’s potential as a bridging actor capable of engaging across ideological and political divides.

Unlike the US or Russia, Turkey’s approach is not perceived as zero-sum. Its ability to talk to all sides while pushing for regional ownership of solutions enhances its appeal in a complex geopolitical environment.

Turkey’s deepening engagement in the Balkans-through diplomacy, defense, economics, and energy-constitutes a multidimensional strategy aimed at securing long-term influence in a region critical to Europe’s security architecture. While the EU and US often view the Balkans through the narrow lens of enlargement or countering Russian influence, Turkey approaches it as a zone of historical ties, future opportunity, and strategic depth.

More importantly, Ankara’s role should not be seen as a threat or competitor to Western ambitions but as a complementary force that can bridge gaps, de-escalate tensions, and reinforce the region’s path toward integration and stability.

In this sense, Turkey’s presence in the Balkans is not only a reflection of its historical legacy but also a projection of its modern strategic calculus-an asset that Europe, and the broader West, would do well to embrace.