On June 22, Iran faced its most alarming scenario: the United States, in coordination with Israel, launched airstrikes on Iran’s heavily fortified nuclear sites in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. These facilities, once considered virtually untouchable, were reportedly destroyed, signaling a significant escalation. For Tehran, this marks a stark shift in its strategic reality. It now confronts not only Israel, a nation with superior intelligence and military capabilities, but also direct involvement from a global superpower.
This crisis arrives in the shadow of past confrontations, such as the 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Quds Force, by a U.S. drone strike. Iran’s response to Soleimani’s death involved limited missile strikes on US bases in Iraq, followed by a rapid de-escalation. Today’s conflict, however, differs in scale and stakes. The survival of Iran’s leadership is now directly at risk, forcing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei to make critical decisions regarding domestic stability and an appropriate response.
The Iranian government is acutely aware of the dual threat it faces: external aggression from Israel and the US, and the potential for internal dissent fueled by foreign support. The question of succession has gained urgency, especially after the death of former presidential contender Ebrahim Raisi in 2024. At 86, Khamenei remains the central figure of the regime. Reports suggest he has designated possible successors to prevent a leadership vacuum, including discussions about a collective leadership council to stabilize the government if the conflict intensifies.
Potential candidates for supreme leadership include Mojtaba Khamenei, the leader’s son, and Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Ayatollah Khomeini. However, Mojtaba’s inclusion in the succession plan remains disputed.
Meanwhile, Khamenei has also prepared for the possibility of further assassinations, ensuring key military roles are filled quickly to maintain the regime’s continuity. His public appearance at a Shia mourning ceremony in Tehran following weeks of seclusion signaled defiance and an effort to project stability amid the turmoil.
Controlling the narrative is critical for Tehran as it seeks to rally public support. Despite growing societal fragmentation, the attack has temporarily unified Iranians under a banner of resistance. Anti-Israel demonstrations erupted across the country, with participants chanting “Death to America” and “Death to Israel”. Similar protests were seen in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, led by Iranian-aligned groups. These displays of unity mask deeper fractures in Iranian society, which has faced years of economic hardship and political unrest.
For example, Iran has struggled to enforce its mandatory dress code, with women increasingly appearing in public without headscarves despite government crackdowns in 2022–2023. Additionally, the nation’s energy crisis, marked by frequent power outages, has highlighted the government’s failure to provide basic services in a country rich in oil and gas reserves. These underlying issues challenge the regime’s ability to sustain long-term public support, even as it frames its resistance to U.S. and Israeli aggression as a form of national pride.
Tehran is now weighing its options for retaliation. Among the possibilities:
1. Escalating against Israel: Iran could intensify its military actions against Israel, deploying advanced missile systems like the Khoramsar-4. However, this strategy risks rapid depletion of resources and invites further Israeli retaliation.
2. Targeting US Forces: With around 40,000 US troops stationed in the region, Iranian leaders have pointed to them as potential targets. Mobilizing allied militias in Iraq and elsewhere could broaden the conflict. Yet, such actions might provoke a broader US response, destabilizing the Gulf further.
3. Disrupting the Gulf States: Iran may aim to undermine Arab-Israeli normalization efforts by targeting countries like Bahrain and the UAE, signatories of the Abraham Accords. Disrupting shipping routes in vital passages such as the Strait of Hormuz could also pressure Gulf nations aligned with the US.
4. Cyber warfare: Iran’s advanced cyber capabilities could be directed at US infrastructure or the oil and gas sectors of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, causing economic and logistical disruptions. Cyberattacks offer Tehran a way to retaliate asymmetrically while maintaining plausible deniability.
5. Strangling key maritime routes: Iran has already begun interfering with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Electronic jamming has reportedly caused collisions, raising fears of further maritime disruptions that could spike oil prices globally.
Iran’s internal challenges compound its external pressures. The nation’s diverse population includes large Kurdish, Azerbaijani, and Baluchi communities, many of whom feel marginalized by the government. Armed groups within these communities, as well as the opposition organization Mojahedin-e Khalq (MEK), could exploit the current instability. Protests in Kurdish and Baluchi regions in 2022 highlighted these vulnerabilities, and the regime’s partial success in containing them does not eliminate the underlying discontent.
Iran’s intelligence services have also struggled to counter foreign espionage. In June, over 700 individuals accused of ties to Israel’s Mossad were detained, with the government vowing harsh penalties. However, Mossad’s ability to plan and execute operations months in advance underscores the weaknesses in Iran’s security apparatus.
Tehran’s hopes for diplomatic resolution have dimmed. President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who once sought improved relations with the US, now face the collapse of nuclear negotiations. Iran’s leadership views Israel’s airstrikes as a deliberate attempt to derail talks, leaving Moscow as its only potential mediator. Yet, Tehran is wary of being used as a bargaining chip in Russia’s negotiations with the West over Ukraine.
Iran is unlikely to risk a full-scale war with the US, opting instead for a hybrid strategy that combines proxy warfare, asymmetric retaliation, and propaganda. By leveraging regional allies and exploiting vulnerabilities in US and Israeli strategies, Tehran aims to signal its resilience without provoking a catastrophic escalation.
The regime’s survival remains its primary objective, and its responses will likely reflect a careful balance between defiance and restraint. However, the crisis underscores the fragility of the region’s security dynamics. As tensions continue to rise, the potential for miscalculation grows, threatening not only Iran’s stability but also the broader Middle East. How Tehran navigates this precarious moment will shape the trajectory of the conflict and its own future in the region.